Karen Khachanov’s recent surge on the ATP Tour has been nothing short of remarkable. After claiming the title in Almaty, he reached the final in Vienna, defeating the likes of Brandon Nakashima, Matteo Berrettini, and Alex De Minaur.
At the Rolex Paris Masters, Khachanov has continued his impressive run, dispatching Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Alexei Popyrin, and Grigor Dimitrov. His victory over Dimitrov, despite the latter’s diminished fitness, was particularly impressive.
Khachanov’s dominance stems from his exceptional serving and returning abilities. Against Mpetshi Perricard and Popyrin, he won three of four sets without tiebreakers, showcasing his prowess as a returner. These victories bode well for his upcoming clash with Ugo Humbert, another formidable server.
Humbert, too, has been in fine form, defeating Carlos Alcaraz and Jordan Thompson in straight sets. The Frenchman’s home-court advantage in Bercy has fueled his performance, with the crowd propelling him to new heights.
However, Khachanov’s recent defensive brilliance and his ability to exploit Humbert’s backhand with his down-the-line backhand give him an edge. While Humbert’s aggressive style has yielded success, it also carries the risk of unforced errors.
Despite Humbert’s current level, Khachanov’s +120 odds suggest a 55% chance of victory for the Frenchman. This assessment undervalues Khachanov’s chances, which are significantly higher than a coin flip.
