At the Rolex Shanghai Masters, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is poised to face Tomas Machac in a highly anticipated semifinal clash. Sinner, fresh off a dominant victory over Daniil Medvedev, has been in impeccable form throughout the tournament. His clinical 6-1, 6-4 win over Medvedev showcased his exceptional level of play, while his 6-4, 7-6 (1) triumph over Ben Shelton in the Round of 16 further cemented his status as the tournament favorite.
Machac, on the other hand, has also impressed with his remarkable performances. The Czech sensation stunned Carlos Alcaraz 7-6 (5), 7-5 in the quarterfinals, following a hard-fought three-set victory over Tommy Paul. However, while Machac has been playing at an exceptional level, Sinner’s consistency and dominance throughout the season suggest that he is the more likely victor in this matchup.
One aspect to consider is Machac’s improved forehand performance this week. According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, his forehand shot quality has soared to 9.1, significantly higher than his season average of 7.4. This improvement has been a key factor in his recent success. However, Sinner’s forehand remains a formidable weapon, with a normal shot quality of 8.8 and an impressive 9.2 in Shanghai. This suggests that Sinner will have the edge in this area, or at the very least, be able to neutralize Machac’s forehand threat.
Furthermore, Sinner’s overall shot quality is superior on both the forehand and backhand sides. Advanced statistics also give him a significant advantage as a server and a returner. Machac’s hold percentage of just 78.9% this season is a concern, as Sinner’s break percentage of 27.2% is among the highest on the tour. Sinner’s ability to hold serve consistently and break his opponents with ease will be a major challenge for Machac.
Another factor to consider is Machac’s physical condition. He has experienced some cramping issues in recent months, and the demanding conditions in Shanghai could potentially affect his performance. Additionally, Sinner is known to thrive on quicker hard courts, which is the surface being used in Shanghai. In fact, Sinner defeated Machac 6-4, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the Miami Open earlier this year, which was also played on a similar surface.
Based on these factors, it is reasonable to predict that Sinner will emerge victorious in this semifinal clash. His superior consistency, shot quality, and experience on this surface make him the more likely winner. While Machac has played exceptionally well this week, Sinner’s overall dominance and current form suggest that he will be too strong for the Czech challenger.
