With the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 season reaching its climax, the race for the playoffs intensifies. While two teams (MI and PBKS) have been eliminated, the remaining eight teams are vying for the four coveted spots.
KKR and RR Lead the Charge
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) are the frontrunners, each with a 36% chance of finishing as the sole toppers. They also have a combined 62.5% chance of being at least tied for the first spot on points. However, they are not yet guaranteed a playoff berth.
SRH, CSK, DC, and LSG in Contention
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) is currently in third place and has a nearly 97% chance of finishing among the top four. Chennai Super Kings (CSK), Delhi Capitals (DC), and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) are also in the mix, with chances of making the playoffs ranging from 56% to 58%.
RCB and GT Face an Uphill Battle
Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) and Gujarat Titans (GT) have an uphill battle ahead. RCB has a 20% chance of finishing among the top four, while GT’s chances are under 16%.
Playoff Scenarios
The remaining 11 games will determine the final standings. KKR and RR are the most likely to qualify, with SRH joining them as the third team. CSK, LSG, and DC will battle it out for the fourth spot. RCB and GT need a series of favorable results to make the playoffs.
Methodology
The chances of each team making the playoffs are calculated based on 2,048 possible combinations of match outcomes. Each combination is analyzed to determine the final rankings of the teams. The percentage of outcomes that give a team a chance of finishing in the top four or the first spot is then calculated.
