Daniil Medvedev, the world No. 4, will face Matteo Arnaldi in the first round of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday. Medvedev, known for his dominance on hard courts, has shown improvement on clay in recent times, boasting a 9-4 record on the surface over the past year.
Despite Arnaldi’s two previous losses to Medvedev in straight sets on hard courts, experts believe Medvedev has a significant advantage in this clay-court encounter. Arnaldi’s serve, a crucial weapon on clay, has been inconsistent, with a hold percentage of just 77.6% since the start of 2024. Medvedev’s exceptional return skills will likely exploit this weakness, forcing Arnaldi to hold serve consistently.
Furthermore, Arnaldi’s baseline play lacks the consistent power to challenge Medvedev. While Arnaldi excels in creating uncomfortable situations for opponents, Medvedev’s defensive prowess and ability to retrieve balls will neutralize this tactic. Medvedev’s versatility on clay, including his ability to hit with topspin and depth or flatten his shots for winners, gives him an edge over Arnaldi.
Considering Medvedev’s recent form on clay and Arnaldi’s limitations on the surface, sportsbooks are offering favorable odds on Medvedev to win in straight sets. This bet offers value, as Medvedev is expected to handle Arnaldi with relative ease.
