Daniil Medvedev’s impressive performance at the Miami Open has caught the attention of tennis enthusiasts, including those who predicted his victory at +650. While the Russian star faces a formidable opponent in Jannik Sinner in the semifinals, experts believe Medvedev has a strong chance of emerging victorious.
Sinner’s remarkable 20-1 record this year, including titles at the Australian Open and Rotterdam, has solidified his status as a top contender. However, analysts argue that the gap between Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz and the second tier, including Medvedev, is not as significant as some may believe.
In their previous encounter in the Australian Open final, Medvedev pushed Sinner to the brink, winning the first two sets with aggressive play. While Medvedev’s exhaustion from previous marathon matches may have hindered his performance, his newfound strategy of ending points early and approaching the net more frequently proved effective.
Medvedev’s physical advantage in the best-of-three Miami Open format is another factor in his favor. Unlike in Melbourne, he has not endured the same level of physical exertion, allowing him to maintain his energy levels throughout the match.
Furthermore, Medvedev’s exceptional defensive skills and ability to adapt his game plan from match to match give him an edge over Sinner. His superior fitness also enables him to outlast his opponent in potentially challenging conditions.
While Sinner may possess a slight edge in current form, the implied probability of his victory at the current odds is considered too high. Experts believe the odds should be closer to 60%, making Medvedev an attractive underdog bet.
